Have the bookies made an error?

LedleyI was having a look at the betting for next season’s Premier League today and although the bookies normally aren’t far wrong, I feel the prices are a little off the mark. While I don’t for a second expect Tottenham to be winning the league, I am confused as to how they can be 40/1 shots with Man City as short as 9/2 and Liverpool as short as 11/1.

Man City’s spending power is phenomenal and they have added some serious talent to their squad this summer with the likes of Boateng, Toure and Silva joining an already excellent group of players. The problem for them is I don’t see Mancini as the man to get these players to gel or control their egos and settle the unrest when their start to the campaign isn’t as phenomenal as everyone is expecting. I think they could well end up in a similar position to last season.

Are Liverpool suddenly going to be a successful side under Roy Hodgson? They looked awful at times last season and it’s going to take them time to rebuild. Torres appears to be in a very bad way if the world cup is anything to go by. Carragher isn’t half the player he was a few years ago and Gerrard turns it on when he’s in the mood. This is assuming Torres and Gerrard are staying.

Now onto the 40/1 outsiders! Admittedly, one good season does not a great club make, but there is just as much reason to believe we can continue our progression under Harry Redknapp as there is we will resume the battle for 7th and 8th place. I don’t feel like last season was a fluke. Our home form has been solid for a number of years now and we have finally mastered the art of picking up points on the road. The possibility of a Champions League campaign will test the squad, but we have the strength in depth now to be able to change the personnel from game to game and still be a force in the Premiership.

The betting for the top 4 sees us 6th best behind Chelsea, Utd, City, Arsenal and Liverpool. I seem to remember us being given a similar chance at the start of last season. History has a habit of repeating itself…

25 thoughts on “Have the bookies made an error?”

  1. Spurs face an impossible task trying to keep Manchester City out of next season’s top 4 imho. I think we have more chance of keep Arsenal out.

  2. 40/1 seems a bit short. We should be out at 200/1. Agree with Jonesy that finishing above Man City this season is an impossible task.

  3. I think with a full season with Mancini rather than a low profile, never won anything manager, like Hughes, Man City will be a shoe in for top 4. Our best chance is to out Arsenal, but they are strengthening whilst we are not, this could be the key factor, see us as 5th, 6th candidates next season. We look like failing to grab our opportunity by “taking a punt” on some new players.

  4. Last season everyone thought City looked strong and they failed and i think this could happen again.They look strong but if we get the strike force right then we will be the force.The reason we failed to finish above arsenil was wolves.Getting beaten home and away by them killed us .Add them six points till our total and see what might have been.In the last game of the season i think if we had needed to win we would have so there is three more thats nine more points folks on last season so get the failings of last season sorted and roll on this season.

  5. Two years ago Man Utd won the league without beating any of the top 4. Doesn’t matter who Citeh, Utd, Chelski etc buy, as long as we beat the rest of the league we have a chance. Have some faith!

  6. The only odds which seem completely wrong are Liverpools. City could be a complete disaster, but they could also spend a 100 million and click (another factor is that all the other title contenders have ovious flaws). OTOH, we’re not going to win the league unless a miracle or 2 occurs. Mind you, the same is true for Liverpool who should be similar odds to us.

  7. I guarantee that Arsenal will finish above City. We must take out City. The bookies know that more people will bet on Liverpool than us – irrespective of probability. For that reason, they cannot risk higher odds for Liverpool in case they actually perform that miracle. Only really Spurs fans would bet on Spurs, where non Liverpool fans would bet on Liverpool. Citeh has that uncertainty – they may click and steam roller the league. However, I have big doubts that it will happen, and I think that they will get merely one or two points more than last season. We must match last season.

  8. Harry is an ambitious manager. He believed in our CL chances last season when a lot were knocking us. I think he wants us challenging for the top honours.

    The title is 99% beyond the reach of all but a couple of clubs. But if the team gets those few key players we are after then have a chance to improve on last season for sure.

  9. I put £10 on spurs in corals last saturday @ 33/1 and £2 on us @ 66/1 for champions league winners

  10. I think we just need to concentrate on improving ourselves, with such a young squad and maybe one/two quality additions we should be able to do so. Man City still have to gel together as a team. When Chelsea bought all the big name players they already had the core of a good team, and were already challenging near the top of the table.

    We should be pleased that we now seem to have a great deal of stability. Also, with extra games this season (we hope)it will enable us to keep a larger squad happy. I cant’ wait to see Bale & Lennon in tandem!

  11. Why worry about what the populance think? The bookies only place odds based against what they might lose. Because of that, if you have the faith, then put on your money and run. Certainly if 4th can get you 10-1, it will pay for the new shirts NEXT season if we can do 4th again.

    At this stage, the only side really spending is Citeh.Are United and Chelsea that far in front of the rest considering the age of some of their players. Three points for us on the opening day will see all the odds turn around again. There has to be an unloading by all the teams in the top 6 after their announcment of their squads for Europe and the Premiership. Too many players at each of the clubs for limited roles will see staff having to move on – and not at silly money. If we can unload our excess staff now at the top of the market and then buy in the Sales, then 4th is achievable. It needs the team to perform as we know they can, for the manager to repeat the impossible and the fans to support them as only we can.


  12. I agree. Silly article. 80/1-100/1 is more realistic. If anything, the bookies are being too tight. 9/2 for City ? Give me a break. Would you take that price ? No chance.

  13. Many people concerned that Mancini will be better manager than Hughes. Maybe he will, who knows? His City record yielded a similer points rate than Hughes – (albeit with mostly not his squad). This is what I feel about City, they take a decent manager in Hughes and replace him with someone who is potentially marginally better – Mancini. They do this throughout – replacing Dunne with Toure/Lescott. Replacing De Jong with Yaya Toure etc.. With a squad like that, they will soon breach their squad of 25 – they will have to sell to buy!

  14. you should be happy if they’ve overvalued spurs in your opinion. get some spondoolies on them and take the bookies on.

    personally, i think 4th place will be an even bigger achievement than last year, but we have a great chance.
    everton are a team to watch if they steer clear of injury, and obviously the usual top 5 suspects.

    would love it if we make the champs league proper!!

  15. I honestly don’t think it’s a lost cause finishing above City. We’ve got a solid unit now and as h as been said, with one or two more, could be more consistent and eventually quite a formidable team.

    Here’s to hoping!


  16. Man city wont be in the top 6 this season,no matter how much money they spend facts are they have a manager who thinks tactics are white mints
    players playing for money not the club they wont kill themselfs for this team id worry about newcastle more than this non team.
    top 4 spurs chelsea groaners fergies wineceller
    5th villa then everton liverpool newcastle no change to the big 8

  17. i agree think anyone who thinks spurs wont be in front of city are eiter daft or newbie coattailers

  18. To finish 4th this year we will have to finish above Goons and Liverpool. If we get Cole and Fabiano then anything is possible

  19. I believe neither Chelsea or United are as good now as two years ago. Chelsea’s team contain a number of players over 30. I can see Terry and Anelka tailing off as badly this season as Deco and Ballack did last spring. Manure have their problems-Nani and Rooney are recovering from injury,a want away Vidic, and Ferdinand limited to less games than Ledley. I suspect Man City will finish ahead of both.
    But Spurs have their own difficulties. Crouch looks the type of player that will fall away with age quite quickly. Lennon has yet to show his pre hernia form and indeed may never do so. Any top new stricker cannot be expected to adapt to EPL and partner Defoe at same time,one must be sidelined for the first dozen games. However Spurs have a huge squad and I expect two or three to surprise and do very well. I believe only City are beyond us and hope Tottenham earn a deserved 2nd place.

  20. Wow Welbourne, that is a radical view – especially since we have to make up 16 points on Chelsea… (I grew up near Welbourne Road…)

  21. Bookies odds are set by the money coming in for each team.Eg I am a crazy Spurs fan but would never bet on them as I would not bet on any football team or match.In the long English season so much happens relating to injuries,referees,selections etc you would be crazy to bet.Imo Spurs have the makings of a terrific season with Crouch and Defoe set to have great seasons and I am sure Lennon will terrorise many a left back.My tip for a huge season is Dawson and Gomez will be up with the best.As for the rest of the Premier League, let them do their best.Should be fun!

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